Thought leadership for new ways to do business in support of the global aviation and travel industry.
06 August 2009
Southwest - Frontier! What an Opportunity!
30 July 2009
Just Culture
It does not mean if I report it I can get away with it. It was never meant to relieve people from their personal responsibility. It is meant to encourage people to report problems which are related to the organisation and the management system without fearing retribution, and it actually works.
There are several reasons why procedurers may not work, the most common is it was not communicated to everyone properly (training issue) or it could just be a bad procedure (wrong information, not effective, badly written etc..).
Just Culture will require extensive training at all levels for the cultural shift to happen. Mandating SMS (of which Just Culture is a part) will definitely help.
This will throw some light on the subject http://www.flightsafety.org/gain/just_culture.pdf
19 July 2009
Transition from a Technical to a Management Position
Having read a lot of management books since 1985, an individual's management style is the byproduct of his experiences both successes and failures alike (failures mainly, always look for the lesson learnt, and remember it). One has to find his own management legs so to speake.
Just be sensible, listen and communicate and enjoy the ride, you are in for the time of your life.
15 July 2009
Auditing Suppliers
There are several types of suppliers in aviation (Service Providers, Parts Suppliers and Suppliers). The requirement to audit them is mandated by regulation. Basically, they should be an extension of one’s quality, safety and security requiements and processes.
In general all maintenance organisations are more or less certified and approved to the same standards. An operator's job is to make sure that they comply with the regulations and quality standards and where there are deficiencies bridge the gap.
As for aircraft parts suppliers and with the problem of Suspected Unapproved Parts (SUP), the main thing is “Know Your Suppliers” if the trust is there the job is much easier. SUP by definition may be a problem of lack of the correct paperwork or an actual replica. Proper certification paperwork is essential.
On the whole aviation maybe the easier sector when it comes to auditing because of the amount of regulations governing all its aspects
11 July 2009
Safety and Production
Safety is a cultural issue and is an intuitive action in our personal life (crossing streets, driving, working at home etc...) which we tend to totally suppress when it comes to the workplace because we are busy doing something else (production). And of course it does not help much when senior management is more interested in production than its commitment to Safety (quality and trainning rank in the same category). Well as the saying goes if you think Safety is expensive, try the cost of an accident. Safety and Production are not necessarily at odds, and safety can be translated into production (less accidents, incidents, work stoppages etc..).
Safety Management System (SMS) is mandated across the aviation sectors in most countries whith remaining following within a few years. This is a traditionally "Safety" oriented industry but SMS formalises functions like risk assesments and mitigation and safety objectives, requiring a culture adjustment within the organisation. It will be very interesting to follow the implemetation of SMS and the organisational culture changes.
06 July 2009
Going GREEN again
- Calling Man made Global Warming a religion
- This is a cycle and man has no or very little contribution (Mother Nature just being bitchy)
- Almost totally our fault
- Spending money and imposing taxes under the Energy Bill will undermine the US economy and freedoms among other things
- Others who say, well maybe it is not totally our fault but we did abuse the planet and we need to help fix it.
They all quoted science and media sources (of course accusations of bias were all over the place)
Well, certainly a very emotive issue and from the looks of it both sides are pretty much not budging from their respective positions (nothing new here).
Well, I am no climate change expert, all I know is we abused Mother Nature a lot in the last few decades and it is about time we do something to repair the damage and if this helps with global warming so much the better.
What amazes me that all the so called conservatives who believe we had nothing to do with global warming focus on the cost issue of the equation and refuse to acknowledge the long term effect of incentivising the current GREEN industrial base to transform it into a major segment of the economy thus expanding the opportunities for creativity and innovation and yes my dear friends making money (that can not be too bad). I suppose you have to spend money to make money, or do we all want to repeat history (steel, auto, and others) of those who failed to invest and are/were in dire straits.
05 July 2009
Employee Sabotage
In the following link is an interesting discussion on why employees sabotage their companies. Any solution to the reduction in wrongdoing is only partially addressed by systems that allow the reporting of wrongdoing - the entire approach must take a look at very large institutionalised, and personal issues.
To what extent do you feel these issues are directly addressable in preserving integrity in aviation?
http://www.sharp-resources.com/userdown/Sabotage-Workplace.pdf
The work is from: Why might some employees sabotage their companies?
Published: July 01, 2009 in Knowledge@SMU.
02 July 2009
Compliance Culture
It is when compliance becomes a way of thinking and a way of working, no second thoughts. As any corporate culture it is hard work, it requires training and hard work. The rules and regulations have to be explained, their value stressed (sometimes it is hard when the rule itself is not well written or defined) and most importantly the consequences of non compliance have to be explained, in terms of how it affects the person and the organisation.
A Compliance Culture does not kill creativity or innovation, considering all our actions should comply with existing rules, but rather fosters these attributes by allowing people to come out with better ways to operate and even push the envelop of compliance.
01 July 2009
Going Green
I am no environmentalist, but if we don't believe we are living on a distressed palnet and that global warming is a reality, we must be delusional. The palnet needs fixing and it needs it now.
It is not going to be cheap, and the longer we wait the harder and more expensive it becomes. Well of course cap and trade will hurt the consumer, not the legislation but how businesses will implement it, just pass the cost to the consumer. Airlines will just do that, the same way the fuel surcharge has been added the carbon tax (and I hate the term) will be added.
Yes, let us all take the easy way and pass the cost along. This legislation should be the dawn of a Green revolution (over dramatising a little, but what the heck) the start of a cycle of innovation and creativity and transformation of the way we do things and may be the way we live. All I hear is how bio fuels are more efficient for aircraft use, but what incentive does anyone have to make bio fuels the norm and not the exception, so they are produced intelligently without starving the planet and efficiently, that their cost is lower so the consumer and the environment can benefit.
This should help us redesign things and look again at what is considered conventional wisdom in business and life, we need a different kind of wisdom a GREENER and more begnin one.
It is a whole new ball game, a new clean slate waiting for millions of innovative ideas and creative solutions that will produce a whole new industry that will provide jobs, sustainable and stable jobs.
So please stop whining on how it will hurt the consumer and think how much more it will hurt all of us if we don't do anything about it.
30 June 2009
Aviation Integrity
26 June 2009
Working Harder
The problem does not lie in the "harder" equation but more in HARDER at what. The innovation and creativity comes into play ensuring that the fundamentals of the economy and the way we approach it are sound. As in all human activities the pendlum swings to the other side with a vengance and we will put checks and balances that will invariably go way beyond what is required. Once we have defined what is it that we need to fix it then yes, by all means let us all work and try harder.
20 June 2009
Air travel is a vital component of the global economy
1. Government ownership does not necessarily translate into subsidy
2. Subsidy to Manufacturers is not necessarily dirctely passed to airlines
3. Export credits are not a subsidy but a financing tool
Airlines seem to be weathering this recession better than most, thanks to an oil price spike that forced the airlines to review their fleets and introduce efficiencies and of course the oil crises weeded out the weaker airlines. Governments did not bother to bail out the airlines then and I do not see why now. 2009 Q1 results have been affected but they are not worse than during the oil crisis, one might say that for some they are actually better, but then we have to see Q2 and Q3 results to see the effect of a deepening recession. The industry is very resilient and reacts quicker to changing environments. than most other sectors maybe because of the sensivity of air travel to current conditions being political (wars and conflicts), health (SARS, Avian Flu and H1N1), and economic conditions (recessions and oil prices). All these conditions affect travel demand and in certain conditions airline have no direct influence to change the conditions.
Demand is less in most areas and we are seeing deep discounting and I am sure in time we will see airlines going out of business and certain government airlines getting huge subsidies.
However, the area where governments may have to intervene is Aircraft Financing. The credit crunch is curtailing the ability of airlines to borrow to get aircraft that they may need to expand or improve their efficiencies.Governments have can offer more export credits and maybe loan guarantees. No matter what the form of subsidy it will not be more than a fraction that other sectors have recieved”
19 June 2009
Airports and Emotions
18 June 2009
Strategic Planning in a changing world
The biggest pitfall is when organisations require strategic planners to provide the VISION. Planners are multi tasking, innovative and some of them visionary. However their task is to map out actions and processes that will get us to that vision. Constant review of the environment(s) around us will allow timely changes to the strategy and as a result the way we conduct business.
11 June 2009
"US airlines need to get smaller to get profitable" US Airways CEO
This is something I agree totally with, the industry needs to get smaller in order to grow and definitely improve service to match those in Europe, the Far East and MENA.
The Majors have slowly moved towards LCC practices to improve their cash flow with ancillary charges such as baggage, Wi-Fi and others in addition to stopping beverage and food services on shorter sectors in order to keep their tickets as low and competitive as possible.
What I disagree with is the means the industry should become smaller. He advocates consolidation and mergers and acquisitions as means to improve efficiencies. Definitely, a good merger will improve efficiencies but not necessarily services and definitely will not make the industry smaller. Consolidation and Chapter 11 were used in the last decades as means to improve the industry but unfortunately without any success, the industry has failed to reinvent itself or transform its markets in spite of several opportunities such as 9/11, SARS, Avian Flu, 150 USD barrel of oil, the worst recession since the 1930s and now H1N1.
As the recession deepens and traffic figure take a nose dive, measures put in place last year during the oil price crisis are losing steam. The recession and the rising oil prices (70 USD a barrel) will start a new spiral of ailing and failing airlines. No Chapter 11 please, allow them to fail, this is the only means of removing capacity from the market. The effect of a failing Major Airline will not be as catastrophic as we all think.
Unemployment is the primary concern, however we are starting to hear about impending layoffs. The net effect on unemployment will be minimal as carriers pick up capacity in the affected hubs in order to capitalise on available traffic. The other issue would be aircraft availability and prices, as traffic nosedived, carriers as usual brought in their older, less efficient, less green but smaller aircraft in order to reduce capacity to match demand. The plans to retire these older aircraft get shelved every time traffic slows down. It is about time MD80s and older B737s get retired, and newer and more efficient greener aircraft come into service. That will bolster sagging aircraft lease rates and reduce carbon dioxide footprints and hopefully the Emission Trading System (ETS) charges that will be added to our tickets in the near future.
It has been said often, that we should not waste a good crisis, so far we have wasted every crisis, let us not waste this one to reinvent the industry.
08 June 2009
Ethical Questions related to On Board Broad band
Connectivity in the sky is coming whether we like it or not and it is going to be at a very affordable price and in all classes of travel. This will raise questions some ethical like connecting to questionable sites like porn or extremist organisations which could be viewed by someone sitting close by to the use of audio and voice.
Audio does not pause much of a problem since most people use audio devices like MP3 and iPods in flight. That brings up the issue of voice, currently airlines have a handset at every seat for making satcom calls and the only reason no one uses the service is cost. As costs are rduced and fees become lower wheteher one uses the handset provided by the airline or their own mobile unit becomes irrelevant. Voice was and is an issue that has been with us for years but no one had to address it because it was not used extensively if at all.
Airlines should start thinking seriously of a solution to a problem that has been dormant for years. Maybe the solution in providing every passenger with a top of the range noise cancelling head set.
Affordable connectivity will pause problems, however how big of a problem, no one knows until these services are extensively used.
30 April 2009
Will We Ever Get Back to Normal?
19 April 2009
Closure of the Pogo Air Taxi Idea
I'm always amazed by the clarity of vision of my old boss, Robert Crandall. The following news item appeared in Aviation Week, April 16 written by William Garvey. Note that Bob Crandall lists two issues above all - an airplane that couldn't; financing that dried up. There were many other issues but note the clarity of purpose in his remarks. Now - there is some very encouraging news in his comments. We are going to see a lot of alternative models emerge in aviation.
What I find interesting is that for the past thirty years, there has not been much change. Technology has marched on - the A380 is a sea change from the 707/VC10 era. However, the only fundamental change in the airline model in this timeframe is Southwest (and Ryan, easyJet, GOL etc). Business aviation remains the same, private aviation has seen little change. So how can Crandall claim there will be a lot of alternative models?
I believe the answer lies in two areas. (1) flights scheduled by travel companies that aggregate demand in realtime and 'charter' aircraft fit for the specific need and (2) clubs that blend the private jet industry with flexible demand to offer prices closer to the budgets of the middle class. Both of these offer real change (and many model options). Both of these are in the embryo stage and are being tried.
Item (2) was discussed in another aviation blog recently: http://www.linkedin.com/groupAnswers?viewQuestionAndAnswers=&gid=1571937&sik=1239883736371&discussionID=2566051&readyToAnswer=readyToAnswer&trk=ug_qa_usrcomm&goback=%2Eana_1571937_1239883736371_3_1
One thing I have learned well, whether you agree with Bob Crandall on a specific issue or not - never, ever discount his thoughts and predictions.
================
The News Item:
After devoting several years to market analysis, equipment evaluation, pricing structures, service areas and operational planning, Robert Crandall has decided to ground Pogo, his start up very light jet charter operation, before it ever left the ground. He says he's returning what remains of the operation's seed money to investors.
"I feel badly about it," he said April 15 of the decision. "It's just one of those ideas that didn't work out."
Although Pogo was usually described as an "air taxi," Crandall dismissed that label, saying, "I don't know what that means." Rather, he described the intended service as a typical FAR135 charter operation using small jets with trips confined to the northeastern United States. The group had considered several jets, but seemed finally to settle on the Eclipse 500, primarily for its low acquisition and operating costs. However, Eclipse declared bankruptcy earlier this year after delivering fewer than 300 aircraft.
"Two things did us in," Crandall said. "First, the airplane never got built, and in fact the company went bankrupt. The aircraft still can't operate in icing conditions. So the airplane failed. And while we could conceivably use alternate airplanes, that wouldn't have provided as great a price advantage versus existing alternatives. And secondly, you can't finance anything new these days, especially in aviation."
He estimated a need for $80 million for Pogo to begin operations and said he was in New York pursuing financing the day Bear Stearns failed - "Nice timing," he noted.
Even though he is exiting the market, the former American Airlines chief predicted, "You're going to see a lot of alternative models emerge in aviation" because with the continuing contraction of airline service, "it's getting harder and harder to go from Point A to B in the United States."
"There is a market out there for alterative models that will save people time," he said, but added he's unlikely to be the provider. "My guess is it's going to take quite a long time for the market to recover. If it takes ten years, I'll be 83. So maybe I'd try again, but that's beginning to push the envelope."
13 April 2009
Interesting Rebuttal to US Airways CEO Comments
He then tackled labor relations—an area of first-hand experience given that years following the merger “completion” his company still has outstanding labor issues. I agree that the ingrained boom and bust mentality clearly is untenable. But the idea that management has unilateral power to change the situation strikes as patronizing and the playing field far from level. While management is quick to “adjust” employment and wages, it has been far less willing to curb its own compensation and perks in a similar way. And there is no hint as to just how management might resist demands for better terms in good times. Unfortunately, as long as these groups perceive each other as antagonists, there will be little progress. Both factions need to relearn that everyone at every airline is tied to its long-term success, and should share equally in profit and loss.
The real meat however, comes in the discussion of service and frequent flyer programs. The service aspect is especially intriguing since U.S. legacy carriers have been regularly pilloried for indifferent, and even rude, service. Social media sites reveal that passengers are generally most upset by employees unable or unprepared to deal with everyday problems. If many reviewers cite surliness, or some variation thereof as the predominant problem, the fix is pretty evident; see that staff are better trained and friendlier. There is scant evidence that that is happening. Southwest and JetBlue have not won customer satisfaction surveys because of their lavish meals but by consistently meeting the expectations of their customers. Attitude is a differentiator that resonates with the consumer.
And then miles. Unless US Airways differs markedly from its peers, it sells miles as well as seats—and quite profitably. At times some carriers have reported that this was the most profitable aspect of their operation so it’s pretty clear that airlines have done well by this strategy. To assert that any carrier’s sole benefit is a bunch of freeloaders is fantasy. Is US Airways ready to relinquish that revenue source? If so, I wish him well in his singular attempt to abolish the practice, at least more success than the airline’s failed attempt to charge for water and coffee.
Finally, while I would agree that the politics surrounding airlines can be complicated, the carriers themselves regularly play the system to their advantage. Witness the continuing hulabaloo surrounding Virgin America’s ownership. Apparently, arcane rules are only deemed absurd when one’s own ox is being gored.
Few would disagree with the idea that aviation both in the U.S. and globally badly needs new ideas and insights. As an industry vital to global commerce, it still is often treated as a local fiefdom, and regulated with disregard of the bigger picture. Until the world’s airlines and their regulators take a broader view, no company, irrespective of size, will achieve its full potential. Mr. Parker’s suggestions provide little to advance that goal.
Ron Kuhlmann is an aviation analyst and former editor of the Unisys Scorecard. http://web.me.com/ronkuhlmann/Site/Welcome.html